Well, well, Boris Johnson has now got a deal. I personally don’t think it will pass. But let us see what happens. The DUP have already made it clear that they wont be supporting the deal. It remains to be seen whether the following 3 groups vote for it:
- the ERG who refused to support May’s deal.
- the 21 Tories stripped of the party whip (a couple of whom are now Independents or in the Lib Dems)
- and the 30 or so Labour MPs who want to deliver Brexit.
I personally don’t think the deal will pass.
I think Johnson should have got an extension a week or two ago. It could have been just a month so that there is time to get the legislation needed to enact Brexit passed. There is no need for this high stakes brinksmanship stuff.
I don’t myself think the Remainers will succeed in making the deal subject to a confirmatory referendum. They will seriously have to get their act together to make that happen.
There seems to be consensus that deal is a harder Brexit than Theresa May’s deal. The hit to the UK economy is likely to be that much harder which is a concern.
My overall concern is that we are just not being governed properly. The government has turned on the spending taps for schools, police and the NHS, basically to buy votes.
The deal may be defeated. Johnson may have to ask for an extension. I would expect the EU to want to make that more than just 3 months. They will want to know that the UK will be having a general election or a second referendum. Once the UK has an extension, then Labour may agree to a general election.
Once a general election is called, Johnson will be able to say that he as a Brexit deal and is being thwarted by Remain MPs and the DUP. I personally think that Johnson may well storm to a handsome victory in those circumstances.
I personally don’t like or trust Boriis Johnson. I would very much prefer that he was not the PM. He has done things he was told were not possible. He has got the Irish backstop removed. He has got the EU to re-open the deal.
I still think it is doubtful that the Conservatives will get a lot of seats in the Brexit supporting Brexit heartlands. But Johnson will have neutralised Nigel Farage. He can say he has going to do a proper/full/clean break, call it what you will, Brexit deal. He wants to get that passed so that he can move on to the other issues that he set out in the Queen’s Speech.
I think the Conservatives will win quite comfortably. I think the Conservatives who stand as independents will in most cases be swept away. I think the Lib Dems will do well in Remain heartlands. I think it will be Labour who are squeezed.
This all comes down to my central point, that Labour has moved too far to the left. If Labour had been led by anyone other than Corbyn, all the Remain MPs could have coalesced around that person They would have been happy for that person to be an interim PM. But not so Corbyn with his shopping list of very left wing and very expensive policies. Labour have been unable to table a motion of no confidence in a government without a majority for the simple reason that they know they wont win it.
There is only one outcome from all of this – another 5 years of Conservative government.