Brexit wont happen

Brexit wont happen

Theresa May is now in a bunker in Downing Street as her own party tries to depose her. She has been a woefully bad leader of this country for the past 3 years. Her authority as PM is shot to pieces. Her latest manoeuvre was to suggest a Brexit withdrawal bill that would include a customs union and a possible second referendum.

I have really stopped paying attention as it is obvious that her own party will not support it. Labour won’t support it either.

Today is the day of the European elections. May will be forced to resign over the weekend.

The Conservatives are being hammered on both sides – those who want Brexit defecting to Brexit Party and those who want to Remain defecting to the Liberal Democrats. The Green and Lib Dems are benefitting from this situation not Labour.

Whoever the next PM is going to have to decide whether they can get a Brexit deal deal through, whether to risk no deal in the face of massive opposition or whether the best thing to do is call the whole thing off. I don’t see Boris Johnson as the man to make that choice.

An election seems likely at some point either Autumn this year or Spring next. We need a government with a workable majority that can actually get its It seems likely that

As far as I am concerned, Brexit is not going to happen. We know that some of the Conservative Party leadership hopefuls, think that the UK can leave the EU and trade on WTO terms. I think it is more complicated than that. We still have to deal with the Irish border, EU citizens, security cooperation and a host of other issues.

What we need is a leader who can very elegantly pivot away from Brexit. Farage and the rest will howl, but Farage is not yet in the House of Commons. When we have a strong government committed to Brexit, it can happen. Until then, it is not going to happen and one might as well revoke Article 50 to give ourselves a chance to re-group.

 

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